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8.8 Probability and Number of Ignitions

Probability is the chance that an event will happen and is expressed in terms of percent, or per 100. For example, if there is a 40 percent chance of a spot fire starting, that means that out of 100 glowing embers that fly off, 40 embers will likely start spot fires, and 60 will not. Percent is calculated by changing the percent into a fraction by dividing by 100, then multiplying by the total number of possible situations.

Example 1 - The probability of ignition is 80 percent. How many ignitions are likely to occur if 90 glowing firebrands land on receptive fuel?

Step 1. Change 80 percent to a fraction, 80/100 and then into a decimal. 80/100 = 0.80

Step 2. Multiply by the total number of situations, in this case glowing firebrands. 0.8 × 90 = 72
 

Expect 72 ignitions out of 90 glowing firebrands

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NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Chainsaw Operations, PMS 212, and Next Generation Position Task Book for Basic Faller Are Now Available

Date: April 14, 2025
Questions?  Please contact:
Hazard Tree and Tree Felling Subcommittee

The updated NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Chainsaw Operations, PMS 212, and NWCG Position Task Book for Basic Faller (FAL3), PMS 311-19 are now available.

The NWCG Standards for Wildland Fire Chainsaw Operations, PMS 212 includes position standards designed to be used in conjunction with the Next Generation Position Task Book (Next Gen PTB). The Next Gen PTB for Basic Faller (FAL3) includes an evaluation guide with suggested rating elements to consider when assessing trainees.

References:

NWCG Standards For Wildland Fire Chainsaw Operations, PMS 212

NWCG Position Task Book for Basic Faller (FAL3), PMS 311-119

NWCG Basic Faller (FAL3)

RMC Memo 25-01: Summary of Updates to Safety Officer Positions

Date: April 9, 2025
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RMC Member Eric Fransted

The Risk Management Committee (RMC) serves as the position steward for all Safety Officer incident positions and continues to improve position standards, training, and naming conventions. The implementation of Complex Incident Management (CIM) required changes to position titles. RMC collaborated with the NWCG Incident Position Standards Committee (IPSC) to propose and implement these updates. 

References:

RMC Memo 25-01: Summary of Updates to Safety Officer Positions 

NWCG Position Catalog

Updated, NWCG Guide to Wildland Fire Origin and Cause Determination, PMS 412

Date: April 8, 2025
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Wildland Fire Investigation Subcommittee

PMS 412 provides guidance for wildland fire investigations. This guide outlines recommended procedures, practices, techniques, and methods to promote a systematic approach. The last update to this publication was in 2016.

References:

NWCG Guide to Wildland Fire Origin and Cause Determination PMS 412

Updated NWCG Standards for Airtanker Base Operations, PMS 508

Date: March 31, 2025
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Airtanker Base Operations Unit

The updated NWCG Standards for Airtanker Base Operations (SABO), PMS 508 standardizes operations and procedures at interagency airtanker bases to ensure safe, efficient, and effective operations in support of interagency goals and objectives.

References:

NWCG Standards for Airtanker Base Operations, PMS 508